Dr. Theo Acheampong has carried out a research on the COVID-19 cases in Ghana and has predicted the number we may reach in three weeks time.
Dr. Theo Acheampong is an Energy expert and a researcher.
“GHANA COULD SEE UP TO 43,000 COVID-19 CASES BY 1 AUGUST 2020 (BASED ON PUBLICLY REPORTED DATA)
- The chart below shows the forecasted scenario for the trend of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Ghana.
It was produced using a combination of Damped Trend Non-Seasonal, Double Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA time series methods.
The predicted results indicate that within the next 28-days, Ghana could see an increase of up to 43,000 COVID-19 cases (lower limit (P95) of 39,000 cases and an upper limit (P5) of 48,000 cases) of the virus.
This translates to a median forecast of 853 (CI: 593 – 1,313 cases) reported cases per day. Using COVID-19 cases by date of the sample taken, the prediction is 33,000 cases based on a median forecast of 450 cases per day.
Regarding mortalities, the forecast is total median mortality of 226 persons (CI: 144-308 cases) reports by 1 August. This translates to 97 extra deaths in addition to the reported 129 mortalities as of 4 July (latest Ghana Health Service Data).
Stay safe folks!
Don’t become a statistic!
Practice social distancing and hygiene protocols!
COVID is real!
©️ Theo Acheampong